后脱欧时代英国对华政策前瞻

UK’s China Policy in the Post-Brexit Era

后脱欧时代,英国自身及其与欧美两大力量的关系将会发生较大变化,这将是影响未来英国对华政策的主要变量。从英国自身来看,由于其国际地位的变化,对华心态及认知也将发生变化,对华政策的矛盾性可能加大。美国因素会更为突出,将在较大程度上影响英国对华政策及中英关系。中英关系中的欧盟因素也会逐渐凸显,成为一个重要变量。欧盟将十分关注英国对华政策特别是经贸政策,并将试图施加影响。但英国对华政策的最主要出发点还是英国对自身利益的判断。英国脱欧后,其全球利益和全球视野不会有根本性变化,中国对英国的吸引力以及英国对中国的重视也都并未改变,这些都是英国对华政策中的不变因素,也是未来中英关系的稳定性所在。从根本上讲,英国对华政策取决于中英双方对彼此的态度,取决于双方关系中的利益所在。预计未来英国对华政策会有较大的摇摆性和不稳定性,但主线仍将是务实合作。后脱欧时代中英关系虽然会有新的不确定性和风险,但也将带来新的合作机会。

In the post-Brexit era,major changes are expected to take place in the UK and influence its relations with both Europe and the United States,which should be the main factor that will affect its China policy in the future.For the UK,the change of its international status will lead to changes of its mentality and concept of China,and lead to more contradictions in its China policy.The United States will play a more prominent role in shaping the UK’s China policy and China-UK relationship.The EU,with a focus on the UK’s China policy,particularly its economic and trade policy toward China,on which it tries to exert influence,will gradually be more and more prominent in the China-UK relationship and become an important factor influencing the UK’s relationship with China.However,the UK will mainly deal with China based on evaluation of its own interests.After the Brexit,the UK’s global interests and global vision will not undergo fundamental changes,nor will China’s attractiveness to the UK and the importance the UK has attached to China.Those are the constant factors in the UK’s China policy,which explain why the China-UK relationship can remain stable in the future.Fundamentally,the UK’s China policy relies on attitudes of both countries and hinges on their mutual interests in their relations.It is expected that pragmatic cooperation between the two countries will still be the main course in the future,despite the expected greater fluctuation and instability of the UK’s China policy.Although the China-UK relationship will face new uncertainties and risks in the post-Brexit era,it will also see new opportunities of cooperation.