中国非金融企业杠杆率的结构性特征及其演变趋势

Structural Characteristics and Evolution Trend of China’s Non-Financial Corporate Leverage Ratio

推进结构性去杠杆需要全面把握中国企业杠杆率的分布情况。本文通过分析中国非金融上市公司数据,发现金融危机后高杠杆企业的主要特征为规模较大,位于房地产,建筑业,电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业以及制造业,且多为国有企业。此外,近些年去杠杆使信贷配置效率有所优化,但高杠杆企业偿债能力依然较弱,且2017年以来企业偿债能力有所恶化,部分民营企业和中小企业融资难度增大,杠杆率被动上升。中国企业杠杆率所表现的结构性特征和潜在风险与企业特征差异、资产价格和宏观经济政策环境演变有关。未来推进结构性去杠杆应强化国企预算约束,构建竞争中性的市场环境,加快僵尸企业处置,推进市场化债转股和多层次资本市场建设,以因城施策原则进行房地产调控,完善针对中小企业的金融服务体系,注重宏观经济政策协调。

It is necessary to understand the characteristics of China’s corporate leverage ratio in order to promote the country’s structural deleveraging initiative.Based on data of China’s non-financial listed firms,this article finds that in the post-crisis era,highly leveraged firms are likely to be large-scaled enterprises and they are mainly in the real estate,construction,utilities,transport,storage,post and telecommunication services and manufacturing sectors,most of which are state-owned enterprises.Besides,over the past few years,deleveraging has improved credit efficiency,but the debt repayment capacity of high-leverage enterprises remains weak.Since 2017,some private and small and medium-sized enterprises have faced greater difficulty in financing and their leverage ratio has risen.The structural characteristics and potential risks of China’s corporate leverage are related to the differences of enterprises,asset prices and the change of the macroeconomic policy environment.To improve structural deleveraging in the future,policymakers should strengthen the state-owned budget constraint and build up a market environment with competitive neutrality.Besides,it is necessary to advance the elimination of zombie enterprises,promote market-oriented debt-for-equity swaps and build a multi-level capital market.The authorities should also take differentiated measures to control housing prices in accordance with the situation in different cities,improve the financial service system for small and medium-sized enterprises,and focus on macroeconomic policy cooperation.