中国分行业全要素生产率估计与经济增长动能分析

Industrial Productivity and Economic Growth Drivers in China

从行业层面考察中国全要素生产率的演进路径,有利于明确新时代经济增长新旧动能转换的主要方向,从而推动经济高质量发展。本文基于同质可比的投入产出数据,采用增长核算法测算了行业层面的全要素生产率,然后基于总生产可能性边界法和跨行业直接加总法测算总体经济全要素生产率,分析中国经济增长动能。研究发现,1985-2015年资本投入对中国经济增长的贡献最大,全要素生产率增长也起到重要作用。全要素生产率增长率提升的70%来源于行业内全要素生产率增长,行业间资源配置效率改善的贡献率为30%。

The analysis of the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)at the industrial level throughout China’s history is conducive to clarifying the main direction of shifting economic growth drivers in the new era and promoting high-quality development.Based on consistent and comparable input-output data,this paper uses the growth accounting method to assess TFP performance at the industrial level,and it then measures the overall economic productivity performance based on the aggregate production possibility frontier(APPF)and the cross-industry direct aggregation methods,thereby analysing China’s economic growth momentum.The results show that capital input contributed significantly to China’s economic growth rate between 1985 and 2015,and that TFP growth rate also played a significant role.The intra-industrial TFP growth produced a 70%increase in the aggregate TFP growth,while the contribution rate of the inter-industrial resource reallocation efficiency was 30%.