广东电网负荷预测误差因素分析

Analysis of Load Forecast Error Factors in Guangdong Power Grid

随着社会经济的不断发展和电网布局的日趋庞大,负荷预测的准确度难以满足电网运营负荷精度要求,预测误差始终存在,而影响误差的各种因素呈现出多样性、突发性和随机性的复杂态势。文章以广东电网为例,采用因果分析图法,分析了影响负荷预测误差的"4M+1E"五大因素,并运用排列图法,判定出影响广东电网负荷预测误差的主要、次要、一般因素。研究负荷预测误差的影响因素,对于控制误差、提高预测质量具有重要的指导意义。

With the continuous development of the social economy and the increasingly large power grid layout,the accuracy of load forecasting can hardly meet the accuracy requirements of power grid operation loads.The forecast error always exists,and the various factors affecting the error appear diversity,suddenness and randomness.Taking Guangdong Power Grid as an example,the causal analysis chart method was used to analyze the five major factors of "4M +1E" that affect the load forecast error,and the permutation chart method was used to determine the main,secondary and general factors affecting the load forecast error of the Guangdong power grid.Studying the influencing factors of load forecasting errors had important guiding significance for controlling errors and improving forecasting quality.