产业结构视角下的中国粮食主产区农业碳排放公平性研究

Research on Fairness of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China’s Major Grain Producing Areas from the Perspective of Industrial Structure

本文通过考察13个粮食主产省份种植业与畜牧业碳排放的经济贡献系数,来判断其排放是否公平;对于严重违背农业碳排放公平性的省份,则利用LMDI模型和脱钩模型对其展开深度分析。研究结果表明:(1)粮食主产区种植业领域总体呈现"高碳-低效益"特征,而畜牧业领域却表现出"低碳-高效益"特征;(2)内蒙古、安徽、江西属于严重违背碳排放公平性的省份,其中效率因素是抑制三地农业碳排放增长的共同因素;而结构、劳动力因素只在一定程度上抑制了皖、赣二地;经济因素则是导致三地农业碳排放增加的关键动因;(3)内蒙古在处理农业碳排放与经济发展的矛盾时未能找到好的契合点,而安徽、江西农业碳排放与其经济增长之间的关系正趋于良性稳定。

This paper examines the economic contribution coefficients of carbon emissions from crop production and animal husbandry in 13 major grain-producing provinces to investigate whether their emissions are fair or not.For provinces that seriously violate the fairness of agricultural carbon emissions,the LMDI model and decoupling model are used to conduct in-depth analysis.The results show that,first,the planting industry in major grain-producing areas is characterized by"high-carbon-low-benefit",while the animal husbandry industry is characterized by"low-carbon-high-benefit".Second,Inner Mongolia,Anhui and Jiangxi are provinces that seriously violate the fairness of carbon emissions,among which the efficiency factor is the common factor that restrains the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in the three places.However,the structural and labor factors only restrained Anhui and Jiangxi to a certain extent.Economic factors are the key drivers for the increase of agricultural carbon emissions in the three places.Third,Inner Mongolia failed to find a good match when dealing with the contradiction between agricultural carbon emissions and economic development,while the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in Anhui and Jiangxi is tending to be benign and stable.