行业鼓励政策对中国外商直接投资进入的促进作用——基于《外商投资产业指导目录》和微观企业数据分析

On the Effects of Incentive Industrial Policy on China’s Inward FDI

从1995年首次出台《外商投资产业指导目录》至2019年,中国利用外资行业政策经历了从正面清单到负面清单的变化过程。研究行业鼓励政策对国际直接投资流入的影响,有助于为中国对外商直接投资实施全面负面清单管理提供思路。基于中国工业企业数据库,我们以属于2007年《外商投资产业指导目录》中鼓励行业的外商投资企业为实验组,以不属于样本期所有版本《外商投资产业指导目录》中鼓励行业的外商投资企业为对照组,利用双重差分方法,实证检验了行业鼓励政策对中国外商直接投资进入的影响。研究显示,行业鼓励政策能显著促进被鼓励行业的外商投资企业增加资本金,被鼓励行业中的外商投资企业的资本金投入比未被鼓励行业的外商投资企业高出17.1%。受鼓励的中外合营企业的外商资本金投入比不受鼓励的外商投资企业高出18.8%,受鼓励的外商独资企业的外商资本金投入比不受鼓励的外商投资企业高出14.3%。使用资本金占比重新界定外资企业进行的稳健性检验,以及考虑2007年《外商投资产业指导目录》颁布时间和实施时间差异进行的稳健性检验显示,行业鼓励政策可以使被鼓励行业中的外商投资企业的资本金投入增加6.2%至21.6%。行业鼓励政策可以使被鼓励的外商投资企业的出口贸易率提高2.6%,出口贸易规模扩大21.8%。

It is of great practical significance to analyze the effect of incentive industrial policy on the inflow of foreign direct investment in China. Based on Chinese industrial enterprise database, using the foreign firms which encouraged by the investment industrial guidance catalogue in 2007 as the experimental group and not encouraged as the control group, we use difference-in-differences method to study the direct effect of industrial incentive policy for inward foreign direct investment and foreign investment enterprise’s business activities. The results show that foreign-invested industrial incentive policies implemented by China can significantly promote inflow of FDI about 17.1%. Foreign-invested capital of joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned enterprises has increased after the incentive policy implementation about 14.3% and 18.8% respectively. The foreign-invested industrial incentive policy can help foreign-invested enterprises to raise the probability of export and export value.