多源异质信息下区域干旱危险性的DT型关联分析方法

DT-type Correlation Analysis Method for Regional Drought Risk under Multi-source Heterogeneous Information

针对旱灾灾情评估数据信息多源异质、静态数据不能充分体现旱灾影响因素的现实特征,以及现有关联模型已不能有效解决上述相关干旱灾害风险管理问题,提出了基于面板数据且指标类型具有灰色多源异质性特征的DT型关联模型;并基于接近性视角,构建了发展水平总位移和发展速率总位移,以衡量干旱致灾因子的作用态势,将分式型函数转化为指数型函数,提高了现有模型的分辨率;讨论了模型的相关性质、分辨率大小以及局限性。并将此模型应用到河南省中部5个城市干旱灾害危险性分析中,将所得结论与已有文献成果进行了比较,证实了模型的有效性和可行性。

Aiming at the fact that the information of drought disaster assessment data is heterogeneous and multi-source,static data can not adequately describe the realistic characteristics of drought impact factors,and the existing correlation model can not effectively solve the above-mentioned related drought disaster risk management problems.Based on panel data,a DT-type correlation model with grey multi-source heterogeneity was proposed.Based on the perspective of proximity,the total displacement of the development level and the total displacement of the development rate were constructed to measure the action situation of drought-causing factors.The fractional function was transformed into exponential function,which improved the resolution of existing models.The related properties,resolution and limitations of the model were discussed.The model was applied to the evaluation of drought disaster in five cities in the middle of Henan province,and the conclusion has proved the validity and feasibility of the model.