新型冠状病毒疫情对我国电力行业的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of New Coronavirus Epidemic to China’s Power Industry

全球经验表明,疫情会对经济社会产生负面影响。此次中国武汉市新型冠状病毒疫情爆发的时间节点、波及的领域范围,以及为应对疫情釆取的相关部署安排,既考验着电力行业保障电力安全可靠供应的能力,也会直接或间接通过电力供求形势变化影响电力企业的生产运行。结合疫情因素和近年来中国经济运行中电力供求变化特点,本文认为疫情将会降低工业和商业用电负荷,医疗机构新增用电和居民生活用电将会显著增长,但鉴于工商业用电比重较高的事实,全社会用电量同期同比增速将明显放缓。考虑到近年来用电增速放缓的经验事实,此次疫情或将放大电力行业积聚的矛盾和困难,因此为发挥市场在电力资源配置中的决定性作用而加快推进电力体制改革和全国统一电力市场建设愈发重要与迫切。

Global experience has shown that epidemics can have negative economic and social consequences.The timing of the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Wuhan,China,the affected areas and the relevant deployment arrangements,which not only test the power industry's ability to ensure safe and reliable power supply,but also directly or indirectly affect the production and operation of power enterprises through the changes in power supply and demand.Combined with epidemic factors and the characteristics of electricity supply and demand change in China's economic operation in recent years,this paper argues that the outbreak of the new coronavirus will reduce industrial and commercial power load,new medical institutions and residents power consumption will be significant growth.However,in view of the fact that industrial and commercial electricity proportion,the whole society’s power consumption during the same period year-on-year growth will slow down significantly.Considering the fact that the growth rate of electricity consumption has slowed down in recent years,this epidemic may magnify the contradictions and difficulties accumulated in the power industry.Therefore,it is increasingly important and urgent to accelerate the reform of the power system and the construction of a national unified market in order to give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of power resources.