高出口省内增加值率能否作为政策目标——基于中国省级数据的研究

Can High Ratio of Intra-Provincial Value Addedio Gross Exports Bean Objective of Policy?--Based on China's Provincial Level Data

全球价值链背景下,测度贸易增加值可以比较真实地反映一国(或地区)在国际贸易中的收益。基于2012年内嵌中国省际投入产出表的全球投入产出表,采用拓展的WWZ方法,本文核算了我国各省出口增加值及增加值率,首次探讨了在向全球价值链中高端攀升的过程中,能否把高出口省内增加值率作为各省政策目标的问题。研究发现:比较来看,各省整体的出口省内增加值率与发展水平呈“倒U型”关系;从各省内部行业比较来看,各行业的出口省内增加值率与发展水平呈“U型”关系;不同行业间出口省内增加值率呈“U型”变化趋势,即农业和服务业比工业的出口省内增加值率高,劳动密集型比资本密集型制造业的出口省内增加值率高,资本密集型比技术密集型制造业的出口省内增加值率高;在结构效应的主导下,发展水平较低的地区,其出口省内增加值率有可能较高。基于此,不能简单地把高出口省内增加值率作为政策目标,还需要考虑发展阶段和结构特征来决定贸易升级的方向和路径。

Under the background of global value chains(GVCs),value added in trade can more accurately reflect trade gains than gross trade value.Based on the global Input-Output table embedded with China's most up-to-date provincial Multi-Regional Input-Output table for 2012 and the extended WWZ decomposition method,we calculate the value added in exports and the ratio of value added to gross exports of provinces in China,and explore the rationality of using the high ratio of intra-provincial value added to gross exports(PVAR)as an objective of policy in the process of climbing to the middle and high end of GVCs for the first time.This study gets the following four key findings.First,there is an"Inverted U-shape"relationship between the PVARs of provinces and the provincial development levels.Second,there is a MU-shapew relationship between the PVARs of sectors with provincial development levels.Third,the PVAR for Agriculture,Industry and Services shows a "U-shape" difference;The PVAR of Agriculture and Services is relatively higher than that of Industry;The PVAR of labor-intensive manufacturing is higher than that of capital-intensive manufacturing,which is higher than that of technology-intensive manufacturing.Forth,with the effect of export structure,the province with higher development level may have lower PVAR.These findings suggest that PVAR cannot be separately used as an objective of policy,development stage and structural characteristics of the provinces should also be considered to determine the direction and path of trade upgrading.