吉林省人均粮食占有量时空格局变化与影响因素分析

Changes and Influencing Factors of Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Food per Capita in Jilin

为保障区域粮食供需平衡和区域粮食安全提供参考,运用重心模型、空间自相关分析模型和空间回归模型分析2002-2017年吉林省县域人均粮食占有量的时空动态格局变化和影响因素。结果表明:时间上,吉林省人均粮食占有量波动上涨,涨幅为89.97%;空间上,吉林省县域人均粮食占有量呈较强的空间自相关性,高高集聚区分布在中西部平原台地区,低低集聚区分布在东部山地丘陵区;2002-2017年,人均粮食占有量重心向北偏东32.65°移动了7.05 km。人均耕地面积和粮食单产是影响人均粮食占有量变化的主要因素。

The changes and influencing factors of spatial and temporal pattern of food per capita at county level from 2002 to 2017 are analyzed by using the gravity center model,spatial autocorrelation model and spatial regression model to provide a reference for guaranteeing regional grain supply-demand balance and regional grain safety.Result:The food occupancy volume per capita fluctuates with 89.97%rise range in Jilin from 2002 to 2017.The food occupancy volume per capita at county level shows a higher spatial autocorrelation in space.The high-high agglomeration areas are distributed in plain areas of central and western Jilin but low-low agglomeration areas are distributed in hilly and mountainous areas of eastern Jilin.The gravity of food occupancy volume per capita move 7.05 km from northward easterly 32.65°.Per capita agricultural acreage and food yield per hectare are main factors influencing changes of food occupancy volume per capita.