近30年京津冀地区湖泊面积的变化

Lake Area Changes in Jing-Jin-Ji Region in Recent 30 Years

利用遥感、气候和社会经济统计数据,探究1987-2017年间京津冀地区湖泊面积的变化及其与自然和社会因素的关系。结果表明,该地区湖泊面积过去30年间整体上呈减少趋势,每年减少约2%,这是自然和人为因素双重影响的结果。可分为3个阶段:前10年(1987-1996年),湖泊面积增加约4.8×10~2 km^2 (约占76%),由自然因素主导(R^2=0.849,p=0.001);1997-2009年的13年间,湖泊面积呈减少趋势(减少约4.7×102km^2,占43%),主要由人为因素主导(R^2=0.536,p=0.013);最近8年(2010-2017年)中,湖泊面积呈增加趋势(增加约2.3×10~2 km^2,占36%),也主要由人为因素导致。虽然最近8年来该地区湖泊面积减少的趋势得到扭转,但地表水资源供需矛盾仍然严峻。

By using remote sensing data, climatic data and socio-economic data, this study revealed that the lake area of Jing-Jin-Ji region tended to an overall decrease between 1987 and 2017(approximately 2% per year) due to effects of both natural and human factors. The 30-year lake area change could be divided into three periods: in 1987–1996, it increased(about 4.8×10~2 km^2, 76%) as a consequence of climate changes(R^2=0.849, p=0.001);during 1997–2009, it decreased(about 4.7×10~2 km^2, 43%) because of intense human impacts(R^2=0.536, p=0.013);and in the recent eight years(2010–2017), it increased again(about 2.3×10~2 km^2, 36%) due to human regulations. Although the severe lake decreasing trend of the study region has been reversed in recent eight years, the contradiction between supply and demand of surface water is still remarkable.