台海两岸“维持现状”析论

An Analysis of “Maintaining the Status Quo” on Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait

"维持现状"一直是涉台学者关注的重要研究课题。什么是台海现状?谁来界定台海现状?中美台三方对于台海现状有着各自的清晰界定。李登辉、陈水扁与蔡英文执政期间,都曾声称与标榜要维持两岸现状,但都无一例外地打破现状,谋求"两国论"与"渐进式台独"。两岸关系发展进程表明,台海现状一直在持续变动中,影响维持台海现状的内外因素与环境已经发生巨变,各方均能接受的维持现状的共同基础也不断被蚕食。作为两岸关系发展中的阶段性诉求,目前"维持现状"显然已与新时代的两岸关系进程格格不入,也难以继续成为两岸之间的共同话语。

"Maintaining the Status-Quo" has always been an important research topic by the scholars focusing on Taiwan studies. Then, what is the current situation of the Taiwan Strait and who will define its status quo? China, the United States and Taiwan have respectively their own clear definition of the Strait’s status quo. During their administrations, Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen all claimed to maintain the status-quo, but all broke it without exception and sought the "Two-State Theory" and "Progressive Taiwan Independence". The development process of the cross-Strait relations shows that the current situation of the Strait has been constantly changing, the internal and external factors and environment that affect the maintenance of the status-quo have changed dramatically, and the common foundation that all parties can accept the status-quo has been constantly eroded. As a stage appeal in the development of the cross-Strait relations, the "maintaining the status quo" is obviously incompatible with the process of the cross-Strait relations in the new era, and it is difficult to continue to become a common discourse between the two sides.