中国省域碳锁定空间溢出效应及影响因素分析——基于空间面板模型的实证检验

Analysis of Spatial Spill over Effects and Influencing Factors of Carbon Lock-in of China’s Provinces:Empirical Test Based on Spatial Panel Model

利用碳排放量和碳汇量构建碳锁定系数模型,测度中国30个省区市2007-2016年碳锁定程度;构建空间面板模型,实证检验影响碳锁定程度的关键因素,并利用一阶差分GMM解决变量内生性问题,以避免估计结果不稳健。实证结果表明,中国省域碳锁定存在明显的空间溢出效应,城镇化、地区建设、交通运输和对外开放是导致中国碳锁定程度加深的重要因素;考虑内生性问题后,创新能力和环境规制能够有效减缓中国碳锁定程度的加深。

The paper uses carbon emissions and carbon sinks to build a carbon locking coefficient model to measure the carbon locking degree of 30 provinces and cities in China in 2007-2016;building a spatial panel model to empirically test the key factors affecting the carbon locking degree, and using the first-order differential GMM to solve the endogenous problem of variables, in order to avoid the estimation results are not robust. The empirical results show that: China’s provincial carbon lock-in has obvious spatial spillover effect, urbanization, regional construction, transportation and opening-up are important factors that lead to the deepening of China’s carbon lock-in degree;considering the endogenous problems, innovation ability and environmental regulation can effectively reduce the deepening of China’s carbon lock-in degree.