能源系统韧性研究进展及应用探索

Research Progress and Application Exploration of Energy System Resilience

首先从工程、生态和演进三个方面对韧性概念的发展脉络进行梳理,将其与已有概念进行区分,并提炼能源系统韧性的定义;其次,分别从指标体系构建、评估工具选择和评估结果分析三个方面系统地总结韧性的测度方法;最后,对韧性应用于中国现实的研究进行探索,从韧性视角分析天然气"气荒"事件。研究发现,与理论研究取得的成果相比,能源系统韧性的实证研究较少,因而未来能源系统韧性的研究不仅要进一步明确系统的边界,而且要在实证分析中取得进展和突破。

In this paper, firstly, we sorted out the development of the concept of resilience from three aspects of engineering, ecology and evolution, distinguished it from existing concepts, and refined the definition of energy system resilience. Secondly, we summarized the measurement methods of resilience systematically from the three aspects of indicator system construction, evaluation tool selection and evaluation result analysis. Finally, we explored the application of resilience in China and analyzed the "gas shortage" event from the perspective of resilience. The results show that there are few empirical studies on energy system resilience compared with the results of theoretical studies. Therefore, future studies on energy system resilience should not only further clarify the boundary of the system, but also make progress and breakthroughs in empirical analysis.