土地财政影响房价的作用机理及实证检验

Mechanism and Empirical Test of Land Finance Influence on House Price

土地财政对房价有一定影响,短期来看,我国商品房市场供给弹性大于需求弹性,房地产开发商相对购房者明显处于有利位置,其可以在相当大程度上通过抬高商品房售价把交付给地方政府的土地出让金转嫁给购房者,由此导致商品房价格上涨;长期来看,购房者支出结构的调整、对商品房价格上涨的预期、城市化进程对房地产需求的增加以及原体制下住房供给的短缺等因素都不足以支撑房价的长期持续上涨。土地出让金推高房价必须借助银行信贷规模扩张才能实现。实证研究表明,银行信贷规模相对土地出让金推动房价上涨的作用更为明显。因此,稳定房价的政策选择为:加大稳健货币政策推行力度,合理掌控货币供给量;深化财政体制改革,降低地方政府财政运作对土地出让金的依赖程度;维护房地产市场的正常秩序。

Land finance has a certain impact on house price.In the short term,the supply elasticity of China commercial housing market is greater than its demand elasticity,and the real estate developers are obviously in a favorable position compared to the purchasers because they can,to a large extent,shift the land transfer fees delivered to the local government to the purchasers by raising the commercial housing price,which will lead to the rise of the commercial housing price.In the long run,the adjustment of the buyers’expenditure structure,the expectation of commercial housing price rise,the increase of the demand for real estate in the process of urbanization and the shortage of housing supply under the original system are not enough to support the long-term continuous rise of the house price.Land transfer fees pushing up house price can only be realized by the expansion of bank credit scale.The empirical research shows that the role of bank credit scale is more obvious than that of land transfer fees in pushing up house price.Therefore,the policy choice of stabilizing house price should strengthen the steady monetary policy implementation,reasonably control the money supply,deepen the reform of financial system,reduce the dependence degree of local government financial operation on land transfer fees,and maintain the normal order of the real estate market.