摘要
提出一种基于多元非集计(multinominal non-aggregation logit,MNL)模型的公交出行方式的选择方法。分析城市公共交通中应用最普遍的公交车、快速公交及轨道交通3种公交方式的特性,结合目前居民出行特性预测方法的特点,考虑影响城市居民选择乘坐各种公共交通出行方式的影响因素,建立城市居民公交出行方式选择的MNL模型。以广州市2014年出行调查数据为依据,标定MNL模型参数,计算得到的2014年广州市轨道交通、公交车、BRT出行方式的分担比例与实际结果的误差小于10%,该模型可为未来城市公共交通方式选择模型的研究提供借鉴。
A choice of bus travel mode based on the multinominal logit model(MNL)is proposed in this paper.The characteristics of the three most common public transportation modes such as the bus,bus rapid transit(BRT)and rail transit are analyzed.Combined with the characteristics of prediction method of the current residents′travel,and considering the factors that affecturban residents selecting various public transportation modes,the MNL,the bus travel mode chosen by urban residents,is established.Based on the travel survey data of Guangzhou City in 2014,the MNL parameters are calibrated and the margin of error withthe actual value is within 10%calculated on the basis of the travel modes of rail transit,bus and BRT of Guangzhou City in 2014.This model can provide reference for the study of the selection model of urban public transportation modes in the future.
作者
王茁
张鸣轩
WANG Zhuo;ZHANG Mingxuan(School of Transportation,Dalian University of Science and Technology,Dalian 116052,China)
出处
《山东交通学院学报》
CAS
2020年第1期24-31,共8页
Journal of Shandong Jiaotong University
基金
2019年大连科技学院大学生创新创业训练计划省级项目(201913207012)。
