从对历史数据的量化分析看中美两国研发支出的社会经济效益

The Social and Economic Benefits of R&D Expenditure in China and in the United States From the Quantitative Analysis of Historical Data

量化分析研发经费投入与产出的社会经济效益越来越重要。本文以中国和美国历史数据为研究对象,选取专利申请量(居民)、科技期刊论文数、高技术出口三个指标为代表,衡量研发活动对社会经济影响的输出;选取年度研发经费支出及其来源构成等相关参数作为输入,通过数据分析得出以下结论:一是研发活动直接与以专利、论文、高技术出口为代表的社会经济发展产出线性正相关;二是专利申请量(居民)与五年前的研发支出、科技期刊论文数与四年前的基础研究支出、高技术出口与六年前的研发支出呈强线性相关。在此基础上,本文提出以更长远眼光前瞻部署科技规划、重视基础研究经费投入比例的建议。

It becomes more and more important to quantitativelyanalyzethe performance of rapidly increasing R&D expenditure both in China and in USA.This article chose patent applications(residents),scientific and technical journal articles and high-technology exports as three output parameters to measure the social and economic benefits of R&D expenditure.At the same time,it chose R&D expenditure and several other relative parameters as inputs to measure a country’s R&D investment.This article drew following conclusions after analyzing historical data from 1953 to 2016.First,there was a causal relationship between the inputs and the outputs,which meant R&D expenditure had direct social and economic benefits.Second,R&D expenditure 5 years ago had a strong linear relationship with patent applications(residents),basic research expenditure 4 years ago had a strong linear relationship with scientific and technical journal articles,R&D expenditure 6 years ago had a strong linear relationship with high-technology exports,which meant R&D expenditure(including basic research expenditure)took a long time to make the most benefits.In the end,this article offered two suggestions for policy makers.First,it is necessary for policy makers to have a long-term view and have determinations to invest R&D in advance and have patience to wait them make the most impact after 4 to 6 years.Second,it is necessary for policy makers to pay attention not only on the amount of R&D expenditure but also on its structure and allocate more resources on basic research expenditure.