城镇职工医疗保险基金运营“收不抵支”风险及应对策略——基于2010-2014年度统计数据的分析

城镇职工医疗保险基金是我国社会保障基金的重要组成部分,其运营发展关系国家经济建设、社会稳定和职工福利。本文基于2010-2014年度统计数据,利用实证模型对中国城镇职工医疗保险基金运转现状及可能隐含的问题进行了预测和评估,研究结果表明:从长期来看,城镇职工医疗保险的统筹基金将会出现较严重的“收不抵支”现象,虽然个人账户基金“赤字”并未显现;中国城镇职工医疗保险基金营运责任主体“缺位”和制度设计“泛行政化”、统筹层次过低、保值增值渠道单一、隐性缺口扩张等问题日益凸显,基金的可持续运营状况令人担忧。因此,为了实现城镇职工医疗保险基金的长期财务收支平衡和基金的可持续发展,本文分别从纵向分层一体化改革、分类监管和多渠道营运等方面提出了有针对性的政策建议。

Urban workers'medical insurance fund is an important part of China's social security fund,and its operation condition is related to economic construction,social stability and labor market development.Based on 2010--2014 annual statistics,this paper uses empirical model to predict and assess the operating condition and the potential difficulty of china's urban workers'medical insurance fund.The results show that China's urban workers'medical insurance pooling fund will appear more serious deficit phenomenon in the long term,whereas the personal account is not significant.Moreover,these problems,such as the lack of fund operation body and system design,low coordinate level,single channel of appreciation and hidden expansion gap,are more worrisome.Therefore,in order to achieve the long-term financial balance and sustainable development of China's Urban workers'medical insurance fund,this paper proposes a targeted policy recommendations on respects of integrated vertical stratification reformation,classified supervision and multiple channel operation.