中国废纸回收系统物质流分析与评价

Material flow analysis and evaluation of waste paper recycling system in China

构建了2017年中国废纸回收决策系统的基准模型,其中重点关注废纸非规范回收对中国国内废纸回收系统的经济效益和环境(GHG排放量)的影响.其次,对影响废纸回收系统效益的相关参数进行了灵敏度分析,最后在整合非规范回收商贩情境下对系统经济效益和GHG排放量进行了预测.结果表明:2017年中国废纸回收的经济效益约为458.3元/t,GHG排放量为901.1kgCO2eq;规范回收率和非规范回收接受率都会对系统经济效益和改善GHG排放结构有显著影响;整合非规范回收企业以及个体回收商的情境下2030年经济效益将上升至3312.5元/t,而GHG排放量上升至942.9kgCO2eq.并且通过情境预测发现整合非规范回收能提升规范回收率,这能有效的规范中国的废纸回收市场.

This paper constructed a benchmark model of China's waste paper recycling decision system in 2017,focusing on the impact of nonstandard waste paper recycling on the economic and environmental benefits of China's domestic waste paper recycling system.This model construction was followed by sensitivity analysis of the relevant parameters affecting the efficiency of the waste paper recycling system.Finally,the system’s economic benefits and GHG emissions were forecast in the context of integrating nonstandard recycling vendors.The results showed that the economic benefit of China's waste paper recycling in 2017 was approximately 458.3 yuan/t and that the GHG emissions were 901.1kgCO2eq.The standard recovery rate and nonstandard recovery acceptance rate would both have a significant impact on the system’s economic benefits and improved the GHG emissions structure.In the context of integrating nonstandard recycling enterprises and individual recycling vendors,the economic benefits would rise to 3312.5 yuan/t in 2030,while GHG emissions would rise to 942.9kg CO2eq.And through scenario prediction,it was found that the integration of nonstandard recycling could improve the standard recovery rate,which could effectively regulate China's waste paper recycling market.