全球价值链视角下中美贸易失衡的原因、测度和贸易利得分析

The Cause,Measure and Benefit Analysis of Sino-US Trade Imbalance from the Perspective of Global Value Chain

近年来,随着特朗普政府单边发起新一轮的中美贸易争端,中美贸易失衡问题再次引发关注。结合全球价值链的双边部门层面贸易流分解框架与地位和参与度指数,采用2016年世界投入产出表(WIOD2016),通过对中国向美国出口中的国外增加值,按照国别和产业部门进行分解,并测算中美等国在全球产业链中所处的位置,对中美贸易失衡问题进行研究。研究表明:全球产业链分工导致的中间品贸易在国家间流动,是中国对美国贸易顺差额居高的重要原因;传统的总值贸易统计严重高估了中国对美国的贸易顺差额,增加值贸易差额占总值贸易差额的比重约为74.36%;中美两国贸易利得均呈现逐年增长趋势,但中国获利能力远低于美国,属权贸易利得占出口额的比重均值约为47.39%。

In recent years,with the trump administration unilaterally launching a new round of trade disputes between China and the United States,the issue of trade imbalance between China and the United States has attracted renewed attention. In this paper,the bilateral section-level trade flow decomposition framework of global value chains,the status and participation index of global value chains,and the world input-output table 2016(WIOD2016),are used to break down the foreign added value of China’s exports to the United States by country and industry sector,to calculate the position of China,the United States and other major countries in the global industrial chain,and so on,so as to study the trade imbalance between China and the United States.The research shows:It can be found that the flow of intermediate goods between countries caused by global industrial chain division is an important reason for China’s high trade surplus with the United States.China’s trade surplus with the United States is seriously overvalued by the traditional gross trade statistics,and the value added trade balance accounted for about 74.36% of the total trade balance.Trade gains between China and the United States have been increasing year by year,but China’s profitability is much lower than that of the United States,the average share of rights trade gains in exports was about 47.39%.