1949—2019年中美经贸关系基本图景及未来展望

The Basic Prospect and Future Vision of China-US Economic and Trade Relations from 1949 to 2019

2019年是新中国成立70周年,也是中美建立外交关系40周年。当前全球化不断发展,贸易保护主义有所抬头,中美经贸关系如何走向成为摆在两国面前的重大议题。1949—2019年,中美贸易关系经历了冰冻隔绝期、解冻破冰期、成长蜜月期、波动上升期、入世黄金期和正面对抗期。回顾梳理70年历史,中美贸易虽然呈现出“长期政治化”“长期摩擦”“非对称性”和“互补性竞争”等特点,但中美经贸关系作为两国关系的“压舱石”和“推进器”,是发展两国关系的基础和驱动力。当前的中美贸易战具有必然性和长期性,中国应该做好打持久战的准备,化压力为动力,转挑战为机遇,以中美贸易战为契机,跨越“修昔底德陷阱”“中等收入陷阱”“金德尔伯格陷阱”和“马尔萨斯陷阱”等四大困境,建成社会主义现代化强国,实现中华民族伟大复兴。

The year of 2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and the 40th anniversary of the diplomatic relations establishment between China and the United States.Under the background of the continuous development of globalization and the rise of trade protectionism,the China-US commercial relationship is a major issue in the face of two countries.From 1949 to 2019,the China-US commercial relationship has gone through a period of freezing isolation,a period of ice-breaking,a period of growing honeymoon,a period of rising fluctuations,the golden period of accession to WTO and a period of positive confrontation.Looking back on 70 years of history,althoughChina-US trade has shown the characteristics of"long-term politicization","long-term friction","asymmetry"and"complementary competition",as the"ballast"and"propeller"of bilateral relations,China-US economic and trade relationsare the basis and driving force for the development of bilateral relations.The current China-US trade war is inevitable and long-term.China should prepare for a protracted war,turn pressure into power,turn challenges into opportunities,and take the China-US trade war as an opportunity to cross"the Thucydides trap""the Middle-income trap""the Kindleberge trap"and"the Malthus trap",to built a modern socialist country and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.