基于动态贝叶斯网络的CTCS3-300T列控车载系统运行可靠性及可用性评估

DBN-based Operational Reliability and Availability Evaluation of CTCS3-300T Onboard System

考虑运行过程、多状态性、动态失效及恢复机制等问题,基于动态贝叶斯网络对CTCS3-300T车载系统运行可靠性及可用性进行评估。在分析300T车载系统结构及可靠性框图的基础上,结合系统运行过程,实现动态贝叶斯网络的结构学习和参数学习。动态贝叶斯网络推理结果表明:300T车载系统具有高运行可靠度和可用度,系统失效后,能通过切换冗余开关迅速恢复系统功能;为提高系统可靠性和可用性,对系统功能模块的重要度顺序和导致系统失效的敏感性元件顺序进行了研究。研究结果表明:在系统运行阶段,对主系统和备系统进行定期切换,能有效提高运行可靠度;备用动车组可有效提高运行可用度。最后,通过中国铁路某集团有限公司300T车载系统现场维护数据验证本文分析结果的准确性和有效性。

This paper presented a systemic approach to evaluate the operational reliability and availability of CTCS3-300T onboard system based on dynamic Bayesian network(DBN),aiming to solve the problems such as operational situation,multi-state,dynamic failure behavior,and recovery mechanism.Based on the systemic architecture and reliability block diagram as well as the operation process of the CTCS3-300T onboard system,the DBN structure and parameter modeling were conducted.The results show that the CTCS3-300T onboard system is provided with high operational reliability and availability.The system can recover rapidly by using the redundant switch upon system failure.To improve the reliability and availability of the system,the importance sequence of system functional modules and the sensitivity sequence of the components leading to system failure were analyzed.The results of the discussions show the periodic switchover of the primary and backup system can improve the operational reliability and the backup of Electrical Multiple Unit can improve the operational availability.Finally,the validation of the proposed approach is demonstrated by the field data of CTCS3-300T onboard system from one railway corporation.