工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响--基于中国地级市数据的实证研究

The Impact of Industrial Robot Application on Manufacturing Employment: An Empirical Study Based on the Data of Prefecture Level Cities in China

利用2013-2017年中国286个地级市的面板数据实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对中国制造业就业总量存在显著的负影响,工业机器人渗透度提升1单位将导致制造业就业总量下降3.35个百分点。针对影响制造业就业结构的实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对东部、西部地区有显著的负影响,对中部和东北地区的影响不显著,对制造业细分行业、低技能劳动者和男、女劳动者就业均存在普遍的负影响,对高技能劳动者就业存在正向影响,但不显著。深入研究后发现,工业机器人替代不是导致制造业就业下降的根本原因,而是对制造业就业岗位的补充与延伸。政府在制定针对智能制造的产业政策时,应根据地方制造业劳动供给与企业生产需求进行灵活安排。

Based on the panel data of 286 prefecture level cities in China from 2013 to 2017, it is found that the application of industrial robots has a significant negative impact on the total employment of China’s manufacturing industry, that is, the increase of industrial robot penetration by 1 unit will lead to a decrease of 3.35 percentage points in the total employment of manufacturing industry. Further empirical research on the employment structure of manufacturing industry shows that the application of industrial robots has a significant negative impact on the eastern and western regions, but not on the central and northeast regions, and has a general negative impact on the employment of manufacturing industry segments, low skilled workers and male and female workers, while has a positive impact on the employment of high skilled workers, but not significant. It is found that the substitution of industrial robots is not the root cause of the decline of manufacturing employment, but the supplement and extension of manufacturing employment. When making the industrial policy of intelligent manufacturing, the government should make flexible arrangement according to the labor supply of local manufacturing industry and the production demand of enterprises.