70年来中国人口与社会政策的演变--兼论“问题”“主义”与“GPP”

Evolution of China’s Population and Social Policy in the Past 70 Years--Concurrently discussing "problem" "ism" and "GPP"

本文试图从总体公共政策(general public policy,简称GPP)角度高度反思中华人民共和国成立以来人口与社会发展的曲折经历,并探索未来发展方向。基于公共政策系统分析和历史-比较方法提炼出"变迁中的经济国家"概念范畴,打破国际上社会政策学科由福利国家统领的局面,使各种发展型与非/反发展型国家GPP模式探讨亦成为可能,为深刻理解中国经验提供比以往"问题"与"主义"焦点之分更为完整贴切的理论框架。概言之,关于人口与社会70余年变迁的主要观点有:(1)中华人民共和国创建的是与西方福利国家根本不同的社会主义经济国家;(2)"主义"之争导致GPP政治化,"文化大革命"时期"以阶级斗争为纲"的指导思想对于计划经济及计划生育的失误负有重要责任;(3)经济方面,中共十一届三中全会确立以经济建设为中心,实质是经济国家GPP去政治化,改革开放搁置"主义"之争更是进一步加速了物质生产自由化发展;人口方面,则在经济国家"两种生产"指导思想下推行计划生育,不惜采取强制性一胎化政策;(4)"唯GDP论"和"一切向钱看"积累了许多重大社会问题,同时,政府在改革开放中被去经济化(下放企业自主权、利改税等)亦越来越有余力研究解决这些问题;(5)21世纪在经济发展基础上,中共十九大提出了新的社会主要矛盾和既求充分又求平衡的发展战略,标志着"后经济国家"新时代的到来;(6)面对婚姻家庭解组、生育意愿低下、人口急剧老龄化等严峻挑战,新时期GPP重点再次转变,很大程度上将从"人口与经济"转向更为全面和动态平衡的"人口与社会"发展战略。改革开放之初被搁置的"主义"之争亟待在更高水平上研究出科学合理的答案,以彻底解决各种"问题",实现社会公平正义。

This article reviews population and social change in China since the founding of the People’s Republic of China(PRC),reflects on its zig-zags from the viewpoint of general public policy(GPP),and explores its future direction.Based on the analysis of public policy systems and historical-comparative methods,the concept of "economic state in transition"was refined.It breaks new ground in social policy study beyond the limits set by Western welfare states.Inquiry into diverse GPP models including both developmental and non-/anti-development types is made possible.This also leads to a more relevant and comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding Chinese experience than the century-long argument over "problems vs.doctrines/-isms" by adding a GPP perspective for greater analytical power.Major points regarding China’s population and social change in the past 70 years include:(1)The PRC is a socialist economic state fundamentally different from Western welfare states.(2)The arguments over"-isms"led to extreme politicization of China’s GPP,and the guiding ideology of "class struggle as the key link" during the "cultural revolution" was responsible for the errors of the planned economy and family planning.(3)In economic,establishing economic construction as the main focus or center for government work in the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was actually an effort to depoliticize the economic state GPP.resulting in"open-door"and reform with the shelfing of ideological fights over"-isms"to help free and promote material production.In population growth,it was more tightly controlled with a unique "one-child" policy under the economic state’s"two kinds of production"GPP thinking.(4)Preoccupation with GDP-only and"focusing on money"resulted in more and more social problems;at the same time,the government was de-economicized in the process of reform and open-door(giving up direct control of stateowned enterprises,changing profit turn-in to taxes, etc.)and put in a better and better position to deal with social issues.(5)Based on a remarkably developed economy in the 21 st century,the 19 th Congress of the CPC redefined the"main contradiction"of Chinese society by establishing a new development strategy aiming at both sufficiency and "balance",characterizing the advent of a"post-economic state".(6)Faced with the challenges of dissolution of traditional family and marriage,declining fertility aspiration,rapid aging,etc.,the country’s GPP in the new era to a large extent will shift from focusing on"population and economy"to"population and society"with a more comprehensive and dynamically balancing strategy. The arguments over"-isms"tabled at the beginning of reform and open-door now need to be sorted out carefully at a higher level in order to help resolve various"problems"and realize social equity and justice.