2019年中国天然气发展述评及2020年展望

Review on China's natural-gas industrial development in 2019 and its outlook in 2020

中国天然气产业在国家协调稳定发展方针的引领下,亮点纷呈。通过梳理、分析2019年中国天然气勘探开发、资源供应、市场需求、基础设施建设和天然气体制改革的主要经济技术指标或最新进展,认为2019年中国天然气发展有六大亮点或特点:(1)天然气勘探捷报频传,新增天然气探明储量创历史纪录;(2)天然气产量稳定增长,页岩气上产势头强劲;(3)天然气进口换档减速,对外依存度回落;(4)天然气需求量增速放缓,市场供需平衡、平稳;(5)俄罗斯天然气进入中国,四大天然气进口通道全面建成;(6)天然气体制改革重磅迭出,市场化发展迈出决定性步伐。研究结论认为:受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的影响,2020年中国天然气发展面临考验,但整体依然向好;新增天然气探明储量将继续保持高峰增长;页岩气产量将跃上新台阶;天然气进口量保持增长,但价格下降;市场供应宽松;能量计量和计价或开始试点。

Under guidance of national policy on coordinated and stable development, China's natural-gas industry presents a variety of highlights. So, the main economical and technical indicators and the latest progress of China's natural-gas exploration & development, resource supply, market demand, infrastructure construction, and system reform in 2019 were sorted out and analyzed. It's indicated six characteristics in 2019, including that (1) successful exploration occurred frequently and a new record of newly proved reserves was hit;(2) gas production increased steadily, in particular very strongly for shale-gas production;(3) a shift speed of gas imports dropped and a gas external dependence fell;(4) a growth of gas demand slowed down and supply-demand markets were balanced and stable;(5) four major channels importing Russia's gas had been built up completely;and (6) important gas system reforms emerged one after another, and a market- oriented development took a decisive step. It's deemed that, influenced by new coronavirus epidemic, China's natural-gas development will face challenges in 2020, but is overall getting better;the new proved reserves will increase constantly at the peak rate and the shale-gas production will enter a new phase;the imports will rise constantly, but gas price will decline;the supply-demand markets will get loose;and energy metering and pricing may be piloted.