基于贝叶斯理论的复杂装备综合性能评价方法研究

Research on Comprehensive Performance Evaluation Method of Complex Equipment Based on Bayesian Theory

针对复杂装备的综合性能评价问题,研究了复杂装备综合性能的评价过程,提出了一种基于贝叶斯理论的复杂装备综合性能评价方法。该方法在评价过程中确定了复杂装备综合性能评价指标体系,首先,建立了一种基于贝叶斯网络的复杂装备性能分析模型,利用历史数据对该模型进行训练进而得出复杂装备不同性能的评价结果;其次,考虑了产品性能的权重问题,并运用层次分析法确定各项性能指标的权重;最后,通过将贝叶斯网络得出的评价结果与产品性能的主观权重线性结合得到综合性能评价指数,从而对复杂装备的综合性能进行合理的评价,并对综合性能较差的复杂装备提出了合理的指导意见。最后,以某企业生产的推土机为例,验证的该算法的可行性。

Aiming at the comprehensive performance evaluation of complex equipment,the evaluation process of complex equipment comprehensive performance is studied,and a comprehensive performance evaluation method of complex equipment based on Bayesian theory is proposed.In the evaluation process,the comprehensive performance evaluation index system of complex equipment is determined,and a complex equipment performance analysis model based on Bayesian network is established.The model is trained by historical data to obtain the evaluation results of different performances of complex equipment;Secondly,the weight of the product performance is considered,and the weight of each performance indicator is determined by the analytic hierarchy process;The comprehensive performance evaluation index is obtained by linearly combining the evaluation results obtained by Bayesian network with the subjective weight of product performance,so as to make a reasonable evaluation of the comprehensive performance of complex equipment.Therefore,the comprehensive performance of complex equipment is reasonably evaluated,and reasonable guidance is provided for complex equipment with poor comprehensive performance.Finally,the feasibility of the algorithm is verified by taking a bulldozer produced by an enterprise as an example.