战略竞争背景下美国对华贸易威慑分析

U.S. Trade Deterrence against China under the Background of Strategic Competition

从威慑视角对中美贸易交锋进行分析发现,美国对华贸易战的本质是一种力图在逐步升级的方略指导下利用贸易手段对华传递出危险信号,让中国认识到任何与美方意愿相悖的行为都将得不偿失,进而迫使中方将自身行为"规范"在符合美方利益框架内的威慑行为。与此同时,为了确保对华贸易威慑的成本不影响特朗普总统连任,以及避免让对华贸易威慑的实际结果与"让美国再次伟大"的初衷背道而驰,特朗普政府在对华贸易威慑的过程中又始终与中方保持必要的接触,以避免威慑失控。美国将贸易纳入对华威慑"工具箱"的原因在于,相较于其他威慑手段,贸易在当前战略竞争背景下的大国博弈中更能发挥作用。美国对华发动贸易威慑的实力基础,在于其以科技、市场、金融及规则为支撑的贸易霸权。虽然贸易战在客观上给中国带来了一定的负面影响,但从总体上看,美国的贸易威慑并未取得预期效果,这关键在于中方审时度势的反向威慑。从长远来看,贸易战作为美国对华威慑的新手段,必将伴随中美战略竞争的整个过程。

This analysis from the perspective of deterrence shows that the U.S.trade war against China is a deterrent behavior that is guided by gradual escalation strategy.It is attempting to use trade to threaten China and make China realize that its behavior that conflicts with the interests of the U.S.will not be worth the cost.It is intended to force China to"regulate"its action to comply with U.S.interests.The reason why the United States includes trade in its deterrence toolbox is that trade is more effective than other deterrents in the power game today.The strength of the U.S.trade deterrence against China depends on its trade hegemony supported by technology,markets,finance,and international rules.Although the trade war has had some negative impact on China,the U.S.trade deterrence has not achieved its desired results on the whole.The key factor lies in that China has been good at reading the signs of the times and has taken suitable counter-measures.In the long run,trade,as the most effective approach of deterrence for the U.S.,will inevitably continue as an element in China-U.S.strategic competition.