贸易摩擦存在自我加速效应吗?--基于中美经贸争端的实证分析

Self-acceleration effect and trade frictions: a case study of Sino-US trade friction

基于双层博弈框架,对贸易摩擦的产生及走势机制提出了一个新思路:贸易摩擦产生后,扩大从贸易摩擦发起国进口以期缓解贸易摩擦的做法会促使贸易摩擦进一步升级,使得贸易摩擦产生自我加速效应。以中美经贸争端为例,利用2000-2014年WIOD与GAD匹配的制造业数据进行实证研究,研究结果显示:在国际贸易中,不具有出口优势的行业受进口竞争冲击越大,其寻求政府保护导致对外发起的贸易摩擦案件越多;贸易摩擦产生后,增加从贸易摩擦发起国进口的做法不能有效缓解贸易紧张局势,反而会提高摩擦案件的频数,使得贸易摩擦存在自我加速效应。在当前对外经贸形势严峻、国内经济下行压力加大的大背景下,中国要正视贸易摩擦自我加速效应;通过"一带一路"建设,推进区域经济合作,减少对美市场依赖;将培育内需和推进内部改革作为解决经贸争端的根本路径。

Based on the two-level game framework,this paper argues that expanding imports from the initiator of trade frictions will aggravate rather than alleviate trade frictions and then produce self-acceleration effect. We conduct a case study of Sino-US trade friction by analyzing the manufacturing data matched by WIOD and GAD in 2000-2014. We have the following results: the greater the shock of import competition on industries without export advantage is,the more trade friction cases we find that are initiated by industries seeking government protection;increasing imports from the countries that initiate trade frictions cannot effectively alleviate the trade tension,but only to increase the frequency of friction cases and ultimately produce self-acceleration effect. The results warn us that the ongoing Sino-US trade friction might well produce self-acceleration effect. The suggested countermeasures include promoting regional economic cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative,stimulating domestic demand and pushing through reforms.