人工智能、经济增长与居民消费改善：资本结构优化的视角

Artificial Intelligence, Economic Growth and Household Consumption Improvement: A Capital Structure Perspective

改革开放后的很长一段时期内,中国经济呈现出“高增长、高投资、低消费”的特征,近年来虽然居民部门消费率有所上升,但是经济增速也在不断下降。本文构建了含有人工智能和异质性资本(包括实体经济资本、住房资本和基建资本)的动态一般均衡模型,探寻人工智能是否有助于优化中国的资本结构,从而在扩大居民消费的同时促进经济增长。研究发现,人工智能可以优化资本结构,实现扩大居民消费和促进经济增长的双重目标。究其原因,一方面,人工智能可以提高实体经济的吸引力,吸引资金从房地产流向实体经济,从而减轻住房资本对居民消费的挤出效应,并增强实体经济资本对经济增长的拉动效果;另一方面,人工智能可以减弱地方政府依靠基建投资“稳增长”的动机,从而减轻基建资本对居民消费的挤出效应,并进一步增强实体经济资本对经济增长的拉动效果。据此,本文建议政府部门着力促进人工智能快速健康发展,从而优化资本结构,最终实现扩大消费和经济增长的双重目标。

Since the Reform and Opening-up,the Chinese economy has experienced high economic growth,high investment and low household consumption.In recent years,however,the GDP growth rate gradually declines while consumption ratio moderately increases.To study whether artificial intelligence(AI)can boom up consumption and economic growth via an improvement of capital structure,this paper builds up an economic growth model with AI and heterogeneous capital(real economy capital,housing capital and infrastructure capital).The model and simulation experiments reveal that AI can improve the capital structure,so as to raise consumption ratio and economic growth at the same time.On the one hand,AI can increase the attractiveness of the real economy,attract funds to flow from the real estate sector to the real economy,thereby reducing the crowding-out effect of housing capital on consumption,and enhancing the pulling effect of real economic capital on economic growth.On the other hand,AI can reduce the incentive for local governments to rely on infrastructure investment to stabilize growth,thereby reducing the crowding-out effect of infrastructure capital on consumption,and further enhancing the pulling effect of real economic capital on economic growth.Accordingly,the rapid and healthy development of AI can improve household consumption and stimulate economic growth jointly.