社会保险征缴机构转换改革、企业养老支出与企业价值

The Transfer of Department in Social Security Fee Collection, Firms’ Pension Expenditure and Firms’ Value

近年来,中国人口老龄化问题严重,政府养老压力日益增加,而养老金体制尚不健全,养老金征缴体制改革势在必行。本文以2018年7月社会保险(简称社保)征缴机构改革为契机,采用事件研究法,试图厘清社保征缴机构改革、企业养老支出与企业价值之间的关系。研究发现:①总体而言,社保征缴机构转换这一改革事件对企业价值造成了负面冲击;企业2018年前实际缴费率越低,预期未来补交养老金越多,市场反应越差,未来多补缴1元养老金可以带来约2.76元的市值下降;2018年前已经由税务部门征收养老金地区的企业在事件中股票市场反应更差。②员工激励程度不同以及老龄化程度不同地区的企业,实际缴费率与市场反应的关系有所不同。③拖欠养老金、隐瞒员工人数和按最低基数申报社保这三种逃费方式也对企业价值产生影响。本文深入探讨了社保征缴机构改革对企业价值的影响,丰富了公共产品、社会效率以及员工和公司金融等方面的理论文献,拓展了人口老龄化的微观影响、企业社保支出的经济后果以及政府在养老金领域管制经济后果的研究领域,在实践中可以为当前中国正在进行的社保征缴机构改革提供借鉴。

Due to the increasing pension expenditure pressure brought by aging population and the faults in pension system,China’s pension system reform seems imperative.Thanks to the research opportunity provided by social security collection institution reform in July,2018,we explored the relationship between the reform of transferring social security collection to tax department,firms’pension payment and firms’value using event study method.We find that the reform in July,2018 negatively impacted firms’market value.Firms with lower pension payment before 2018 suffered sharper decline in event window via adding firms’expected future pension expenditure.Every 1RMB additional pension expenditure in the future could bring about 2.76RMB market value’s decline.Firms whose pension is collected by tax department before 2018 experienced worse market value reaction.We also find that regions with different aging population and firms with different employee motivation reacted differently in our study.Moreover,firms with pension payment delay,staff number deception and insufficient pension declaration reacted more negatively.Our paper deeply discussed the influence of social security collection institution reform on firms’value,which enriched the theory of public goods and social efficiency and the theory of labor and finance.We also expanded research field in population aging’s effect on microeconomics and in economic consequences of pension expenditure and governance.Our finds would offer reference for the social security reform at the moment.