济南市2014-2018年猩红热流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering analysis of scarlet fever in Jinan city,2014-2018

目的研究济南市猩红热的流行特征,并对时空聚集性进行分析,为猩红热的防控工作提供依据。方法从国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统中获取济南市2014-2018年猩红热疫情资料,采用描述性流行病学方法及时空重排扫描统计方法分析猩红热病例的流行病学和时空分布特征。结果2014-2018年济南市累计报告猩红热7297例,年均发病率20.46/10万。全年出现冬季和春季2个发病高峰。病例主要集中在1~9岁儿童,幼托儿童、学生及散居儿童发病数占总病例数的99.70%,男女性别比1.70∶1。市中区、历城区、槐荫区、天桥区、历下区是主要高发地区,占病例总数的83.50%。按年进行时空聚集性分析,每年均探测到3个时空聚集区,具有显著时空聚集性。结论2014-2018年济南市猩红热处于上升趋势,学校和托幼机构是发病的高危场所,应根据时空分布及流行特征,制定相应的防控措施,控制猩红热的发生和扩散。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological features and temporal-spatial clustering of scarlet fever in Jinan city,and to provide a basis for its prevention and control.Methods The case data concerning scarlet fever in Jinan city during 2014-2018 were downloaded from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System.The epidemiological features and spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of scarlet fever cases were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological methods and time-space rearrangement scanning.Results A total of 7,297 cases were accumulatively reported in Jinan city from 2014 to 2018,and the average annual incidence rate was 20.46/100,000.There were two incidence peaks in each year,which appeared in spring and winter.Most of the cases were children aged 1-9 years.Preschoolers,students and scattered children accounted for 99.70%of the total cases.The sex ratio of male to female was 1.70:1.The districts like Shizhong,Licheng,Huaiyin,Tianqiao and Lixia were the main high-incidence areas,accounting for 83.50%of the total cases.The spatial-temporal cluster analysis was carried out annually,and three spatial-temporal aggregation areas were detected annually,which showed significant spatial-temporal aggregation.Conclusions The incidence of scarlet fever in Jinan city in 2014-2018 showed an upward tendency.Schools and kindergartens were the high-risk places.Effective prevention and control measures based on the spatial and temporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever should be formulated to control its occurrence and spread.