日本经济政策不确定性与企业研发投资--基于日本上市企业微观数据的实证检验

Japanese Economic Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise R&D Investment--An Empirical Analysis Based on Listed Companies

在梳理日本经济政策不确定性波动情况的基础上,利用2010年-2018年日本上市企业微观数据,通过构建实证模型探讨了日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响,主要结论有:(1)日本经济政策不确定性的提高对企业研发活动产生负面影响;(2)日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响具有行业差异;(3)不同经济政策的不确定性对日本企业研发活动的影响方向不同。贸易政策、金融政策不确定性指数的增加负面冲击企业研发活动,而财政政策、汇率政策不确定性的提高却激励企业研发投资。相较于日本,中国企业研发管理经验较少,风险承担能力较弱,政府更应重视在运用政策手段平滑景气波动的同时,避免政策施行的大起大落,警惕经济政策不确定性的过快、过度提高,尽可能营造、引导产生良好的市场预期,并采取有效措施切实支持企业创新活动。

This paper examines time series features of the fluctuation of Japanese economic policy uncertainty, using the micro data of Janpanese listed companies and an empirical model to analyze the influence of Japanese economic policy uncertainty on enterprise R&D. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the increase of Japanese economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on enterprises R&D;Secondly, the influences may vary due to industry differences;Thirdly, different economic policy uncertainty has different kinds of impact on Japanese enterprises R&D activities.The increase in the uncertainty of trade policy and financial policy has negative effects on enterprises R&D activities, while the increase in the uncertainty of fiscal policy and exchange rate policy will stimulate R&D. Compared with Japan, Chinese enterprises have less experience in R&D management and weak risk-taking ability. The government should pay more attention to avoiding the wild fluctuation of economic policies, creating a good market environment, and taking effective measures to support enterprise innovation activities.