基于加权组合模型的中国锰矿进口数量预测

Prediction of Manganese Import Quantity in China on Weighted Combination Model

为了对中国锰矿进口数量进行有效的预测,将多项式拟合模型、GM(1,1)模型进行线性组合,构建了一种加权组合模型,用于中国锰矿进口数量预测。结果表明:利用加权组合模型得到的预测结果平均相对误差小,并且具有较高的预测精度,从而为锰矿进口数量的预测问题提供了一种有效的研究方法。

In order to effectively predict the quantity of manganese import in China,the polynomial fitting model and GM(1,1)model are linearly combined to construct a weighting combination model for the prediction of manganese import.The results show that the average relative error predicted by the weighted combination model is small and it has high prediction accuracy,which provides an effective method for the study of manganese import prediction.