影响未来高等教育教学的宏观趋势、技术实践和未来场景——《2020年EDUCAUSE地平线报告(教学版)》要点与思考

Macro-Trends,Technologies&Practices and Future Scenarios Affecting the Higher Education Teaching and Learning in the Future:Key Points and Considerations of the 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report(Teaching and Learning Edition)

2020年3月2日,美国高等教育信息化协会发布《2020年地平线报告(教学版)》,报告提供了证据、数据和场景,以及专家们对影响高等教育实际采用新的技术和实践的因素的定量评级。该报告采用改进的德尔菲法和前瞻性方法,描述影响未来高等教育教学的15种宏观趋势、6项技术实践、4种未来场景和9个案例观点。报告先从社会、技术、经济、高等教育和政治五方面描述影响高等教育教学的15种宏观趋势。其中,社会趋势包括幸福感与心理健康、人口变化、公平与公正实践;技术趋势包括人工智能技术影响、下一代数字学习环境、分析能力与隐私问题;经济趋势包括高等教育成本、未来工作与技能、气候变化;高等教育趋势包括学生数量变化、教育的替代途径、在线教育;政治趋势包括高等教育资金减少、高等教育价值观和政治两极分化;其次详述了影响未来高等教育教学的6项新的技术与实践,即自适应学习技术,人工智能/机器学习教育应用,学生成就分析,教学设计、学习工程和用户体验设计提升,开放教育资源和扩展现实技术;再次描绘了未来高等教育教学的增长、约束、崩溃和转型4种可能发展场景;最后9位专家对报告发现进行了反思,阐明世界不同地区、不同规模和类型的机构中问题重叠、分歧和交叉的方式。文章采用内容分析和文本分析方法,从影响未来高等教育教学的宏观趋势、新的技术实践、未来发展场景和文章案例观点四个维度,系统解读《2020年地平线报告》,寻求对中国高等教育教学未来创新发展的启示与建议。

On March 2,2020,EDUCAUSE released the“2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report(Teaching and Learning Edition)”.Compared with the previous"Horizon Reports",the new report provides evidence,data and scenarios,and experts Quantitative ratings of factors that influence the practical use of emerging technologies and practices in higher education,and new research methods have been added.The report followed a modified Delphi process,in addition to adapting important elements from the Institute for the Future(IFTF)foresight methodology,describing fifteen macro-trends,six technical practices,four future scenarios,and nine case perspectives that will affect future higher education teaching and learning.The report first describes fifteen macro-trends that affecting higher education teaching and learning from the aspects of society,technology,economy,higher education and politics.Among them,social trends include well-being and mental health,demographic changes,equity and fair practices;technological trends include artificial intelligence:technology implications,next-generation digital learning environment,analytics and privacy questions;economic trends include cost of higher education,future of work and skills,climate change;higher education trends include changes in student population,alternative pathways to education,online education;political trends include decrease in higher education funding,value of higher education,political polarization.Secondly,it details six emerging technologies and practices that will affect future higher education teaching and learning,namely adaptive learning technologies,Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning education applications,analytics for student success,elevation of instructional design,learning engineering,and UX design in pedagogy,open educational resources,and XR technologies.Then it describes the four possible development scenarios of the future higher education teaching's growth,constraint,collapse and transformation.Finally,nine experts reflected on the findings of the Horizon Report,clarifying the ways in which issues overlap,diverge,and cross-cut across institutions of different sizes and types in different parts of the world.The article uses content analysis and text analysis methods to systematically interpret the 2020 Horizon Report from four dimensions:macro-trends that affect the future higher education teaching and learning,emerging technologies and practices,future development scenarios,and article case perspectives in order to seek enlightenment and suggestions for the future innovation and development of the higher education teaching and learning in China.