水利工程移民安置补偿费预测方法研究

Study on the Forecasting Method of Resettlement Compensation Fee for Water Conservancy Projects

对于水利工程移民安置补偿费的预测,常用传统的定额预测法和因素分析预测法来预测,这两种方法存在拟合值过高的问题,影响预测结果。为此,提出水利工程安置补偿费预测方法。通过水利工程移民安置补偿标准,确定补偿指标,根据指标测算移民占有的土地资源年收益,使用GM(1.1)模型处理相关数据,使数据序列元素始终保持正值,避免拟合值过高,测算安置补助费,综合土地资源年收益和土地还原利用率完成移民安置补偿费的预测。测试结果表明,使用相同数据测试,提出的水利工程移民安置补偿费预测方法测试的拟合值在200~500之间波动,低于传统预测方法拟合值测试结果,证明了提出的预测方法更适合应用在实际项目中。

For the prediction of resettlement compensation fees of water conservancy projects,the traditional quota forecasting method and factor analysis forecasting method are commonly used.For this reason,the paper puts forward a forecasting method of resettlement compensation for water conservancy projects.Through water conservancy projects resettlement compensation standard,determine the compensation index,according to the index calculation of immigration has annual revenue of land resources,using GM(1.1)model to deal with the related data,the data sequence elements always stay positive,avoid high fitting values,measuring the resettlement fees,comprehensive utilization rate of annual revenue of land resources and land reduction to complete the resettlement compensation prediction.The test results show that,using the same data,the fitting value of the proposed prediction method for resettlement compensation of water conservancy projects fluctuates between 200 and 500,which is lower than the fitting value test result of the traditional prediction method,proving that the proposed prediction method is more suitable for practical projects.