中国肉牛养殖量对价格变动的反应研究

Research on the impact of China’s beef cattle breeding quantity on its price

深入分析中国肉牛销售价格及养殖成本对肉牛养殖数量的影响,对促进肉牛产业稳定发展具有重要意义。结合农产品供给定律和肉牛养殖特点,以2000年~2016年31省份数据为研究样本,构建计量模型进行实证研究。结果表明,肉牛养殖数量受到以下4个因素的显著影响,分别是上3期饲料价格、当期肉牛销售价格、上3期肉牛销售价格和上3期肉牛存栏量。根据研究结果,提出了降低肉牛养殖成本、构建肉牛信息监测平台、鼓励肉牛繁育和养殖技术研发及推广应用、根据实际情况做好母牛养殖补贴工作等对策建议。

An in-depth analysis of the impact of Chinese beef cattle sales price and breeding cost on beef cattle breeding quantity is of great significance for promoting the stable development of the beef cattle industry. Combined with the law of agricultural product supply and the characteristics of beef cattle breeding, this paper uses the data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2016 as the research sample to construct an econometric model for empirical research. The results show that the beef cattle breeding quantity is significantly affected by the following four factors, namely, the feed price of the last three periods, the sales price of the current beef cattle, the sales price of beef cattle in the last three periods, and the stock of beef cattle in the last three periods. According to the research results, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed such as reducing the cost of beef cattle breeding, constructing a beef cattle information monitoring platform, encouraging the development and promotion of beef cattle breeding and breeding technologies, and doing a good job in cow breeding subsidies based on actual conditions.