基于GIS的城市洲岛乡村聚落空间演变特征及影响机制分析——以南京市八卦洲为例

A GIS-based Research on the Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influence Mechanism of the Rural Settlements in City Island:A Case Study of Baguazhou in Nanjing

为科学辨识城市洲岛乡村聚落空间演变特征及其影响因素,推进美丽乡村建设和城乡融合发展,以南京八卦洲为研究对象,利用ArcGIS、Geoda空间分析功能、地理探测器的方法,定量分析了2007-2017年十年间城市洲岛乡村聚落空间演化特征及其影响机制。结果表明:聚落密度不断增大,空间扩张特征显著;聚落用地在空间上呈聚集性分布,且存在显著的空间相关性;聚落发展水平不均衡;水文、交通是影响八卦洲乡村聚落分布的决定性因素,农业现代化、城镇化、相关政策等是影响该区域乡村聚落格局演变的主要因素。针对空间差异,提出"重点发展、优先发展、有条件发展、限制扩展"的空间优化策略。

To scientifically identify the spatial evolution characteristics and influence mechanism of rural settlements of city island and promote the development of the construction of beautiful countryside and the integration of urban and rural development,taking Baguazhou in Nanjing as the research object,this research gives quantitative analyses of the spatial evolution characteristics and influence mechanism of rural settlements of this city island during the past ten years(2007-2017) by using spatial analysis function of ArcGIS and Geoda as well as geographic detector.The results show that the density of settlements becomes bigger and bigger and the spatial expansion becomes more remarkable;the land of settlements is aggregated on the spatial scale with a significant spatial correlation;the level of settlement development is uneven.This research also reveals that hydrology and traffic are key elements of determining the distribution of rural settlements in Baguazhou.Moreover,agricultural modernization,urbanization and the related policies are the main factors of influencing the evolution of rural settlement pattern.In allusion to spatial differences,this research proposes the spatial optimization strategies of major development,priority development,conditional development and limited expansion.