基于灰色关联的长三角制造业结构高级化影响因素再筛查

Re-screening the Influencing Factors of Advanced Manufacturing Structure in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Grey Correlation

在"长三角一体化战略"升格为国家战略背景下,考查长三角制造业结构高级化影响因素至关重要。本文选取2005~2018年长三角地区省级面板数据,通过文献梳理筛选出11个影响因素,并综合运用灰色关联和动态方程模型分析制造业结构高级化的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)固定资产投资与制造业结构高级化关联最大,其次为对外开放和人力资本发展;(2)人力资本发展显著促进产业结构高级化,固定资产投资、对外开放对制造业结构高级化的影响均呈现"倒U型"。针对研究结果建议长三角制造业结构高级化发展需优化资本投资结构、获得高质量劳动力及高端化对外开放。

In the context of the"Yangtze River Delta Integration Strategy"being upgraded to a national strategy,it is important to examine the constraints of advanced manufacturing structures in the Yangtze River Delta region.This paper intends to select provincial panel data from 2005 to 2018 in the Yangtze River Delta region,screens out 11 constraints through literature review,and uses grey correlation and dynamic equation models to analyze the major constraints on advanced manufacturing structure.The results show that:(1)of the 11 constraints,fixed asset investment has the highest correlation with advanced manufacturing structure,followed by opening up and human capital level.(2)The level of human capital significantly promotes the upgrading of industrial structure,and the impact of manufacturing fixed asset investment and opening-up on the upgrading of manufacturing structure presents"inverted U-shaped".According to the research results,it is suggested that the development of manufacturing structure in the Yangtze River Delta must optimize capital investment structure,obtain high-quality labor support and high-end open platform.