最大用电负荷与经济变量的关联研究

A Study on the Relationship between Maximum Power Load and Economic Variables

用电负荷的估计与预测是经济社会稳定发展的重要因素。以用电负荷数据为导向,发现在高温天气当降温用电设备处于满负荷运行的状态下,用电负荷基本上由经济因素所决定,从而分离经济和气温两个对电力需求影响的因素,提出一种对不可观测最大基准用电负荷的估计方法以准确预测最大用电负荷。运用特征指数方法构建最大基准用电负荷指数,探索其与经济变量之间的关系。以上海为例构建年度和季度的最大基准用电负荷指数,发现其与经济发展高度拟合,反映近年来上海在产业结构调整方面卓有成效。本文以数据为导向,挖掘数据的充分信息,从新的视角估计最大基准用电负荷,以其为桥梁达到准确预测最大用电负荷的目标,为经济形势与转型的预判提供有效分析和数据支持。

This paper introduces a kind of estimation method of the unobservable base maximum power load and forecasting the maximum power load,then use Hedonic Method to construct the base maximum power load index and explore its relationship with economic variables.The influence of economic and temperature factors on the power load are separated.Then the base maximum power load sequence is estimated.We use yearly and seasonal base maximum power load index of Shanghai as an example,finding that this index is highly matching with economic development,reflecting the characteristics of Shanghai industrial structure adjustment.These methods are driven by data,mining the full information of the data,providing a new view of estimating the base power load,and supporting the analysis and forecast of economy more effectively and accurately.