城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的理论基础与发展趋势

The Key Technologies of Integrated Urban Transport-land Use Model:Theory Base and Development Trends

城市交通与土地利用间的协调发展是科学调控城市发展的重要环节。在基于地租理论的微观区位决策与土地利用与交通系统宏观动态交互理论基础上,回顾了城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的发展过程及不同依据下的分类特征,对空间相互作用和重力模型理论模型、空间经济学理论模型、随机效用和离散选择模型和基于行为的微观模型4类一体化模型的优劣进行了系统梳理分析。分析表明,具有合理理论基础、科学数据处理方法、较高模型精度和政策评估适用性的一体化模型仍存在巨大发展空间。近年来西方学者研究趋向微观化、综合化和简约化,而国内一体化模型发展相对滞后,要求模型理论与综合实证开发的进一步突破。特别是在新数据、新交通技术、国土空间规划体系背景下,城市交通与土地利用一体化模型将从"空间"模型向"时空间"模型转变;从"宏观"集计模型向"微观"行为模型转变;从"交通-土地"模型向"综合系统"模型转变;从"样本数据"模型向"大数据"模型转变;从"交通规划"应用向"国土空间规划"应用转变。旨在对城市交通与土地利用一体化模型的一般结构、原理类型、当前面临的问题和挑战进行深入剖析,以推进一体化模型在中国的研究与开发。

Urban transport is a complex system phenomenon of ‘society-technology-nature’. The coordinated development between urban transport and land use subsystem is the basis of reducing transport problems, one of the core theoretical problems of urban geography, and one of the key contents of urban and regional planning. Simulation and prediction of the interaction between urban transport and land use is a key point in scientific regulation of their relationship. However, there is a lack of discussions on key technologies of the integrated model of urban transport and land use. According to the microscopic location choice based on the theory of land rent and the macroscopic dynamic interaction theory of land use and transport system, the development process of the integrated models of urban transport and land use and the classification characteristics are reviewed. The tradeoff between travel cost and location decision is the basic micro mechanism for the formation of travel demand and its spatial distribution(origin and destination). Land use and traffic flow are the aggregate manifestation of individual micro location choice and travel behavior of enterprises and residents. There is a dynamic interaction process between land use and transport system. Land use affects travel demand and its layout, and then affects traffic flow. Transport facilities and traffic flow affect the accessibility and congestion of the region,thus affecting location choice and urban land use. The advantages and disadvantages of spatial interaction and gravity model, spatial economics model, stochastic utility and discrete selection model and behavior based micro model are systematically analyzed. The analysis shows that the research of the integrated model with reasonable theoretical basis, scientific data processing, high model accuracy and certain applicability of policy evaluation still has a large development space. In recent years, the research of western scholars on the integrated model tends to be micro, integrated and simplified. In western countries, integrated models of urban transport and land use are often developed for urban reality analysis and policy evaluation, while domestic researches mainly focus on the interaction and coordination analysis between transport system and land use. The development of domestic integration model is relatively lagging behind, which requires the further breakthrough of model theory and comprehensive empirical development. Especially in the context of new data, new transport technology and territorial space planning system, the integrated model of urban transport and land use will change from ‘spatial’ model to ‘time-space’ model, from‘macroscopic’ aggregate model to ‘microscopic’ behavior model, from ‘transport-land use’ model to ‘integrated system’ model, from "sample data" model to ‘big data’ model, from the application of‘transport planning’ to the application of ‘territorial space planning’. In order to promote the research and development of the integrated model in China, this paper analyzes the general structure, principle types, current problems and challenges of the integrated model of urban transport and land use. It has certain theoretical significance and practical value for quantitatively exploring the interaction between urban transport and land use and developing the integrated model of urban transport and land use in China.