地方领导人任期与城市创新力--基于市级层面的经验证据

Local Leaders’ Tenure and Urban Innovation Capability:An Empirical Evidence from Municipal Level

通过全国303个城市创新指数匹配当地市长和市委书记数据,考察了地方领导人任期对城市创新力的影响。研究发现,市长任期对城市创新力的影响效应呈倒"U"型特征,当市长任期为4. 4年时,任期对城市创新力的影响效应达到最大,但市委书记任期对城市创新力的影响并不显著。进一步分析发现,在不同籍贯地、受教育程度、专业背景特征分组中,市长任期对城市创新力的影响效应存在显著差异;在晋升年龄限制假说下,对于晋升受年龄限制的市长组,其任期与城市创新力间关系的拐点值以及拐点右侧负向影响的程度皆高于晋升不受年龄限制的市长组;对于创新水平居中的大多数城市而言,市长任期与城市创新力的倒"U"关系显著成立,但对于创新能力过高或过低的城市,市长任期对城市创新力的影响作用并不显著。

This paper examines the impact of local leaders’ tenure on urban innovation capability through the data of 303 urban innovation index matching local mayors and municipal party committees. This study found that the influence of the mayor’s tenure on urban innovation capability has a inverted "U" type effect. When the mayor’s term is 4. 4 years,the influence of the term on the city’s innovation is the greatest,but the impact of the city party secretary’s term is not significant. Further analysis found that in the grouping of different places of origin,education level,and professional background characteristics,there is a significant difference in the influence of the mayoral tenure on urban innovation. Under the promotion age limit hypothesis,for the promotion is subject to the age-restricted mayor group,the inflection point of the relationship between its tenure and urban innovation and the negative impact on the right side of the inflection point are higher than those of the mayor group who are not promoted by age. And the relationship between the mayor’s tenure and urban innovation capability is significant for most cities with a middle level of innovation,but for cities with too high or low innovation capacity,the influence of the mayor’s tenure on urban innovation is not significant.