投资强化型技术进步、资本增强型技术进步与国民经济增长

Investment-specific technological progress,capital-augmented technological progress and economic growth

本文在模型的基础上说明了投资强化型技术进步对经济增长的促进作用与累计固定资产价格指数的内生性问题,在构建具体货币政策代理变量的基础上,研究价格水平变动、累计固定资产价格指数变动问题,更为准确衡量投资增强型技术进步,进而研究技术进步对于国民经济增长的影响。研究结果显示,预期与货币政策仍然是物价总水平指数与固定资产投资价格指数变动的主要因素,三种货币政策对于前者的影响超过后者;累计固定资产价格指数作为投资强化型技术进步代理变量,高估了投资强化型技术进步,尤其是2009年之后,表现明显不同;国民经济增长仍然表现出规模报酬递增的特点;资本存量积累在2009年之前对于无偏中性技术进步具有外溢效果,人力资本存量积累外溢效果并不明显;无偏中性技术进步在2009年之后没有明显增长,国民经济增长主要来源于劳动增强型技术进步与资本增强型技术进步,其中,2008-2016年资本增强型技术进步对国民经济增长贡献为49.88%。

Based on the model,this paper illustrates the effect of investment-specific technological progress on economic growth and the endogenous problem of accumulated fixed-asset price index.On the basis of constructing specific monetary policy proxy variables,this paper studies the changes in price levels and the changes in the accumulated fixed asset price indices,and accurately measures the investment-specific technological progress,and then studies the impact of technological progress on economic growth.The results show that,the expectation and monetary policy are still the main factors affecting the change of the total price index and the fixed asset investment price index.The three monetary policies have more influence on the former than the latter.The cumulative fixed asset price index,as a proxy variable for investment-specific technological progress,overestimates investment-specific technological progress,especially after 2009,with significantly different performance.Economic growth still shows the characteristics of increasing returns to scale.The accumulation of capital stock has a spillover effect on unbiased neutral technological progress before 2009,and the effect of human capital stock accumulation spillover is not obvious.The progress of unbiased neutral technology has not increased significantly since 2009.The growth of national economy mainly comes from labor-augmented technological progress and capital-augmented technological progress.Among them,the contribution of capital-augmented technological progress to national economic growth in 2008-2016 is 49.88%.