社会融资规模对经济增长的门限效应研究--基于平滑转换自回归模型的经验证据

Research on the threshold effect of aggregate financing to the real economy on economic growth--Empirical evidence based on smooth transformation autoregressive model

在我国经济转向中高速增长的新时期,金融数据对经济数据的先行引导作用有所减弱值得关注。本文通过构建ST R平滑转换模型,实证分析了社会融资规模对经济增长的效应,结果表明社会融资规模对经济增长的作用机制不是单一的,两者之间也不是简单的线性关系,存在作用的高、低机制转换。在不同的运行区间中,社会融资规模对经济增长存在线性、线性和非线性共同作用机制。

In the new period of high-speed economic growth in China,the leading role of financial data on economic data has been weakened.This paper empirically analyzes the effect of aggregate financing to the real economy on economic growth by constructing STR smooth transformation model.The results show that the mechanisms of aggregate financing to the real economy on economic growth are multiple,including high and low mechanism transformation with linear relation and nonlinear existence.In different operating ranges,the aggregate financing to the real economy has a linear,linear and nonlinear joint action mechanism on economic growth.