基础设施行业供给与服务业增长--基于中国与OECD国家投入产出表的对比分析

The Supply of Infrastructure and Service Sector Development:Based on the Comparative Analysis of Input-output Tables of China and OECD Countries

基础设施对服务业的行业关联和行业溢出研究相对缺乏。本文采用2002-2012年中国30省份地区投入产出表和2000-2011年OECD(经济合作与发展组织)30个国家投入产出表相关数据,运用面板固定效应和门槛效应模型,实证检验了能源、交通、通讯基础设施对住宿餐饮业、批发零售业和金融业三个代表性服务业的影响。研究结果表明:基础设施对服务业的完全供给大于直接供给效应。中国基础设施总体对服务业具有显著的供给效应,但从细分行业来看,交通基础设施行业供给对服务业的促进效应较强,而能源和通讯基础设施的有效供给不足,从而导致中国基础设施对服务业的整体供给效应未出现显著非线性门槛效应,普遍处于较低层次的供给均衡,与OECD国家差距明显。政策制定者应注重基础设施与服务业的行业互动并采取针对性促进措施。

There is a relative lack of research on the industry connection and industry spillover of the infrastructure to the service sector. This paper uses input-output tables of 30 provinces in China during 2002-2012 and I-O tables of 30 OECD countries during 2000-2011. Through panel fixed effect model and panel threshold model,empirical tests about the influence of the energy,transportation and communication infrastructures on 3 representative service industries are carried out,covering accommodation and catering industry,wholesale and retail industry and financial industry. The research indicates that the complete supply promoting effect of infrastructure on the service sector is greater than the direct supply promoting effect. China’s overall infrastructure has a significant and transportation has a strong supply effect on the service industries,while the effective supply of energy and communication are insufficient from the perspective of segmentation industry. As a result,there is no significant threshold effect on the overall supply effect of China’s infrastructure to the service industries. It is generally at a lower level of supply equilibrium,and the gap with the OECD countries is obvious. Policy makers should focus on industry interactions between infrastructure and services and adopt differential promotion measures.