日美贸易摩擦再评估:从广场协议到结构性改革

The Reassessment of Japan-US Trade Friction:From the Plaza Accord to the Structural Reform

日美贸易摩擦已经持续了将近50年,广场协议、卢浮宫协议和结构性障碍倡议是整个经济政策协调过程中比较重要的三个节点,也是本文分析的重点。这三个协议的签署是一种管理冲突的合作行为,以避免贸易战带来的不利冲击。但是管理冲突只是缓和冲突而不会从根本上消除冲突,所以还会展开更深层次的博弈。在这个过程中,政策协调的重点也在不断深化,从汇率调整到财政扩张再到结构性改革。与此同时,政策协调的成本越来越明显,成本分担的零和博弈也就不可避免。因此,成功的政策协调不仅需要双方的妥协,更需要政策理念的转变。作为弱势一方,日本做出了更多的妥协,分担了更多的成本,其中的诸多经验和教训也是最值得反思和评估的。

The Japan-US trade friction has lasted for nearly 50 years.The Plaza Accord,the Louvre Accord,and the Structural Impediments Initiative are the three most important nodes in the process of economic policy coordination,and they are also the focus of analysis in the present article.The signature of these three agreements is a cooperative act of managing conflicts to avoid the negative impact of the trade war.But managing conflicts only mitigates them rather than eliminates them totally,so games at deeper levels will be launched.In this process,the focus of policy coordination is also deepening,from exchange rate adjustment to fiscal expansion and to the structural reform.Meanwhile,the costs of policy coordination are becoming increasingly apparent,and a zero-sum game of costs sharing is inevitable.Therefore,successful policy coordination requires not only compromise but also change in policy philosophy.As a weaker side,Japan has made more compromises and shared more costs.Many of its experience and lessons are also most worthy of reflection and evaluation.