城镇化、经济周期与地区收入分配差距——基于面板门限模型的分析

Urbanization,Business Cycleand Regional Income Distribution Disparity:An Analysis Based on Panel Threshold Model

地区均衡发展是新时代经济高质量发展的必然要求。使用中国省际年度面板数据,分析城镇化进程对地区收入分配的影响,并使用门限面板回归模型分析其在不同经济运行阶段对地区收入分配影响的非线性关系。面板回归结果显示:一是城镇化水平显著影响地区间收入差距,检验结果具有较好的稳健性;二是东北地区的城镇化进程显著缩小了地区间收入差距,东部沿海地区、中部地区和西部地区的城镇化进程显著扩大了地区间收入差距。面板门限回归结果显示,城镇化进程对地区收入差距的影响存在"逆周期"特征,以产出相对波动率衡量的状态断点分别为-5.005%和0.945%。基于以上结果,建议政府完善推进城镇化进程的相关经济政策,注重效率与公平目标间的协调。

Regional coordinated development is an important feature of high-quality economic growth in the New Era.This paper analyzes the impact of urbanization process on regional income distribution disparity using the inter-provincial annual panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)in China,and uses the threshold panel regression model to analyze the nonlinear relationship of regional income distribution in different business cycle.The panel regression results indicate that:The level of urbanization significantly affects the regional income distribution disparityand the result is with great robustness;the urbanization in northeastern China significantly narrows income gap and that in the rest of China expands income gap.The results of panel-threshold regression imply that there is countercyclical feature of impact from urbanization on regional income distribution disparity,and the threshold points classifying various states measured by output relative volatility are-5.005%and 0.945%respectively.It is recommended that provincial-level governments must emphasize more on both efficiency target and fairness goal in the economic policies.