基于多属性改进标准差的关键链项目缓冲设置研究

Research on Critical Chain Project Buffer Setting Based on the Multi-Attribute Improved Standard Deviation

应用关键链方法减少多属性影响下项目进度管理中的不确定性,基于活动自身属性和所处环境的差异性,考虑在活动时间的标准差尺度上体现资源利用状况与网络复杂关系的不确定性影响,进而生成改进标准差;再以多个管理者的绩效评价为条件得到平均效率,结合其风险偏好对缓冲进行二次修正;最终得出了改进后的缓冲设置模型。并使用蒙特卡洛方法对一般算例进行多次仿真模拟,通过比较分析不同方法在不同初始风险水平下的缓冲大小,证明所选方法在降低进度计划中的不确定性和缩减项目缓冲方面的有效性。

The critical chain method is applied to reduce the uncertainty of project schedule management under the influence of multiple attributes. Based on the difference between attributes of activities themselves and their environment,considering the uncertain influence of resource utilization and network complexity on the standard deviation scale of activity time,the improved standard deviation is generated. Then combined with the average efficiency obtained from multiple managers’ performance evaluation and risk preference,the buffer is revised twice. Finally,the improved buffer setting model is obtained. Monte Carlo method is also used to simulate the general example for several times. By comparing and analyzing the buffer intervals of different methods at different initial risk levels,the effectiveness of this method in reducing the uncertainty of schedule and reducing the buffer length of project is proved.