江西省茶叶气象灾害风险评价

Meteorological Disaster Risk Evaluation of Tea in Jiangxi Province

气象灾害是制约茶叶安全生产重要因素之一。为提升江西茶叶防灾减灾和生产气象服务保障能力,本研究基于江西省80个气象站1961—2016年的逐日气象数据和农业统计资料,根据自然灾害风险形成机制,考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体,筛选出6个风险评价指标,建立江西省茶叶气象灾害风险评估模型,将江西省茶叶气象灾害风险划分为高风险、中风险、低风险和无风险4个等级。结果表明,江西省茶叶气象灾害综合高风险区主要位于上饶北部、九江西部、吉安西南部和赣州上犹县;中风险区主要位于江西西北部、赣州北部、抚州北部及宜春东部;低风险区主要位于江西中部和南部;无风险区主要位于江西中北部、西南部和新余市。研究结果可为茶叶防灾减灾管理和合理优化茶叶种植生产布局提供可靠的气象科学依据。

Meteorological disaster is one of the most important factors that restricts tea production of tea.Spring frost,summer heat damage and winter frost damage are the main agricultural meteorological disasters in Jiangxi province.In order to enhance the disaster defense ability and meteorological service capability of tea industry in Jiangxi Province,this paper analyzes the agro-meteorological disaster risk division in terms of daily meteorological data during 1961-2016 and agricultural data.Based on the natural disaster risk formation mechanism,the assessment model of agro-meteorological disaster risk division is developed by considering disaster drivers,disaster environment and disaster bearers that total of 6 indices.By integrating the climate zoning result of three agricultural meteorological disasters,we get the comprehensive agro-meteorological disaster risk division of tea planting in Jiangxi that is divided into four levels:high,moderate,low and free.The results indicate that the high risk areas of tea comprehensive agro-meteorological disaster mainly locate in northern Shangrao and western Jiujiang,southwest Ji'an and Shangyou,about 5.6%of Jiangxi regions;the moderate risk areas locate in northwest Jiangxi,northern Ganzhou,northern Fuzhou and eastern Yichun,about 18.2%of Jiangxi regions;the low risk areas mainly located in the middle and southern of Jiangxi,about 49.9%of Jiangxi regions;the risk-free areas because of less tea planting mainly located in the middle-north and southwest of Jiangxi and Xinyu city,about 26.3%of Jiangxi regions.The research results can provide reference for tea disaster prevention and mitigation management,optimize tea production layout,and accelerate tea industry sustainable development.