不确定性冲击与企业投资动态--来自供给侧结构性改革的准自然实验

Uncertainty Impacts and Investment Dynamics:A Quasi-natural Experiment from China’s Supply-Side Structural Reform

文章利用特定事件提供的自然实验机会,分析了不确定性冲击对企业投资行为的影响及机制。文章以上市公司2013-2016年季度数据建立双重差分模型证实,在供给侧结构性改革政策实施后,企业减少了实物资产投资,增加了金融资产投资。不确定性冲击对受干预企业的固定资产投资和存货投资具有显著的负向影响。分组检验结果显示,不确定性冲击对国有企业技术资产投资和存货投资的影响更加显著,对民营企业固定资产投资的影响更大。不确定性冲击通过外部借款规模,影响企业不同投资的支出水平。在减少企业实物资产投资、增加金融资产投资的同时,不确定性冲击提升了公司的市场价值,这印证了不确定性下微观主体的资本逐利动机。文章检验了不确定性冲击对微观企业不同资本形态投资的影响,为当前不确定性事件的经济影响提供了有意义的参考。

In the post-crisis era,the uncertainties faced by the changing world economy are increasing.How does the rising uncertainty affect economic development? Existing studies have made substantial progress in the measurement,causes and effects of uncertainty,but no consensus has yet been reached. Based on the real option effect,the rising uncertainty increases the cost of the real asset investment and reduces the investment expenditure. Based on the growth option effect,the rising uncertainty increases the financial asset investment. This paper uses the natural test provided by China’s supply-side structural reform policy to analyze the mechanism of uncertainty impacts on the micro-enterprise investment behavior. Based on the 2013-2016 quarterly data of China’s A-share listed companies,we construct a double difference model for empirical testing. The increase in uncertainty significantly reduces the investment in fixed assets,technology assets and physical assets of enterprises,but increases the investment in corporate financial assets. This phenomenon is more obvious in the intervention group. The results of the double-difference model test support that uncertainty has a significant negative impact on the fixed asset investment and inventory investment of the intervention group. Among state-owned enterprises,uncertainty has a significant impact on the technology asset investment and inventory investment of the intervention group. Among private enterprises,uncertainty has a significant impact on the fixed asset investment of the intervention group. After the supply-side structural reform policy,corporate external borrowing financing is constrained,further inhibiting corporate physical asset investment activities. On the contrary,enterprises have increased the scale of the financial asset investment after the supply-side structural reform policy. This possible intermediary path is that the external financing ability of enterprises is constrained and affects the allocation orientation on different assets. In general,the supply-side structural reform policy contributes to the company’s value. However,the current investment activities of fixed assets,technology assets,inventory physical assets do not contribute to the company’s value. The financial asset investment is conducive to the company’s value growth,confirming the micro-subjects to follow the capital profit-seeking motives. The test is re-examined with a variety of robustness tests. The results are consistent with the previous ones,indicating that the research conclusions in this paper are robust and reliable.This paper examines the uncertainty impacts on the different capital forms of micro-enterprise investment by using policy events,and provides more direct empirical evidence for the study of uncertainty causality and a meaningful reference for the economic impact of the current global uncertain events.