房价波动、资金重配与企业投资结构调整

Housing Price Fluctuation,Fund Re-allocation and Investment Structure Adjustment

我国房价的大幅上升吸引了大量的非房地产企业将巨额资金投入到了房地产中;那么,房价的上升是抑制了金融投资还是经营投资?从房地产投资中释放的资金究竟会流入金融投资继续加剧投资结构的"虚化",还是会流入经营投资起到"落实"投资的作用?文章利用我国上市公司2009-2017年年报中投资性房地产和投资现金流的相关数据,匹配市级层面的房价指数信息,检验了房价波动与非房地产企业投资结构的关系。结果显示:(1)当房价上升时,企业为了缓解未来的贷款困境而增加融资,并将这些资金储备在流动性高的金融投资中,从而增加了金融投资占比;当房价下降时,企业为了缓解贷款困境对日常经营造成的影响,将储备在金融投资中的资金转移到经营投资中,从而增加了经营投资占比,降低了金融投资占比。而房地产投资占比无论在房价上升期还是下降期均对房价不敏感。(2)上述由房价引致的企业投资结构调整效应具有明显的异质性,即对非国有企业的影响比国有企业更显著;在房地产投资高的组别中有显著表现,而在房地产投资少的组别中不发挥作用。(3)排除金融市场收益对研究结果的影响后发现,企业降低金融投资并不是金融市场收益降低引起的,而是经营投资不足引起的。上述研究结论说明房价在我国引发的抵押效应要大于挤出效应,因此为了引导企业将资金从房地产中释放出来,除了出台与房地产相关的调控政策之外,还需要优化企业的融资环境,并对企业的金融投资加以同步的限制与引导。

The housing price boom in China has attracted a large number of non-real estate companies to invest in real estate. In order to reverse this "de-reality" investment structure,the government has introduced a series of regulations to stabilize housing prices,trying to guide companies to transfer funds from real estate to the real industry. However,corporate investment activities are not only composed of operational investments(such as the introduction of new equipment,the purchase of patented technology,etc.) and real estate investment,but also financial investments(such as bonds and stocks). Then,does the rise in housing prices inhibit financial investment or operational investment? Does the decline in housing prices really lead to a decrease in real estate investment? Studying the relationship between housing prices and investment structure is the main purpose of this paper.This paper uses the 2009-2017 data of listed companies to calculate the ratio of real estate investment,financial investment and operational investment for each company. Together with the housing price index,we compare the change of investment structure caused by the rise in housing prices and the decline in housing prices. Besides,we do the group test and the interactive variable test to find the mechanism that triggers this change.The results of this study show that when housing prices increase,companies do not significantly increase the proportion of real estate investment as expected,but increase the proportion of financial investment. When housing prices decrease,companies significantly increase the proportion of operational investment,and reduce the proportion of financial investment,but the proportion of real estate investment is still not sensitive to housing prices. Further analysis finds that the impact of this effect on non-state-owned enterprises is more significant than that of state-owned enterprises. Besides,this effect has a significant performance in the group with high real estate investment but not the group with less real estate investment. Finally,controlling the impact of financial market returns,it is found that the reduction of financial investment is not caused by the decrease of financial market returns,but by the lack of operational investment. After further endogenous testing,similar conclusions are obtained.The policy implications of this paper may as follows:First,we should optimize the financing environment,establish the credit information system,improve the information disclosure quality,and strengthen the supervision of funds. Second,we should reduce tax and fees,firmly support the market-based reform of interest rates,speed up tax cuts,and further reduce the related costs of enterprises. Third,we should strengthen financial market supervision,reduce arbitrage space,raise investment thresholds,and stabilize investment returns.